Nik Nanos…the most under-reported pollster in Canadian history?

In 2006, Nik Nanos nailed the election results exactly and the country was surprised! Canada’s corporate media had been reporting from all the other polling sources to get the story about the campaign and they were off target, some more than others.

Fast forward to Campaign 2008 and the corporate media goes with their old pals in the pollstering business. Didn’t they learn their lesson? Or do they have a horse in this race?

Questioning media intention has become a blood sport in North America but there is one definitive study this year that indicates a hint at the truth. There is a long-standing myth of a liberal bias in the media that just does not hold up to scrutiny. Media Matter’s study indicates a 67% influence by conservative writers! With the recent convergence of Canadian media in the hands of conservative supporters. I believe, the Canadian public is not being served by its media in an unbiased way and this transfers especially to interference in the democratic process of an election.

When Stephen Harper says we are becoming more conservative, I believe what he means is that our media is becoming more conservative and he might very well be right. The problem for media is they’ve seen a drop off of subscribers and viewers. Is it that Canadians are not seeing themselves represented in their media and are checking out the internet for sources of information that are more in tune and reflective of who they are?

For me, that is true. I can personally vouch for not watching television for months on end and reading headlines online for several major and regional newspapers. I also gather news from magazines and get my hints for what to look for from the CBC radio which is on all hours of the day. When a story comes up on the radio that I’m interested in, I’ll look for the rest of the information online.

Broadcasting does have a horse in this race this time. Harper has hinted for years about the privatization of the CBC. With a majority in government, I believe he would do this within weeks not months. So the private broadcasters are looking forward to the CBC being put on a level playing field with them – whoring for advertising dollars.

How does the CBC get away with its obvious conservative slant this time? Well, lets follow the money trail? Who wins when an organization is privatized? It’s the people in the hot seat on the day of privatization. Is the CBC’s new (conservative appointed) management team looking to make a fast buck? Are the regular talking heads in the radio and television newsrooms sucking up to the new mandate from on high?

From personal observation, I’d say something is afoot in the Canadian media. And it starts with election poll results and how they are reported.

So, are you interested in the horse race? See what Nik Nanos has to say about Stephane Dion’s Liberal team closing the gap and Dion’s rise in the Leadership Index and make up your own mind about what’s going on. Look around online and find some real information recognizing that the media might have a horse in the race that might not be the same horse as yours.

another interesting polling company?

On Garth Turner's blog, a participant posted about an encounter with a pollster. The caller identified themselves as being from Survey Canada. The householder questioned the caller to find out who was actually calling and who was paying for the poll - turns out its the Conservative Party of Canada. You can read about the experience over at Garth's blog. I have the impression it may be like a push poll instrument.

So I went to the trusty Google machine to find out who Survey Canada is. Google search gives a link to a website with a header only. Back at the Google search though we learn that Survey Canada is a division of Hyperweb Communications Inc., a website designer. Not sure why they're involved in push polling for the Conservatives but this is definitely a tactic used in the US by Republicans to deliberately plant doubt about the opposition. 

Canadian voters should be warned about this new tactic being employed by the Conservatives. Push polls are definitely an unwelcome tool for our democracy.

What is a push poll, you ask? The trusty Wikipedia offers a fairly complete idea.

A push poll is a political campaign technique in which an individual or organization attempts to influence or alter the view of respondents under the guise of conducting a poll. In a push poll, large numbers of respondents are contacted, and little or no effort is made to collect and analyze response data. Instead, the push poll is a form of telemarketing-based propaganda and rumor mongering, masquerading as a poll. Push polls may rely on innuendo or knowledge gleaned from opposition research on an opponent. They are generally viewed as a form of negative campaigning.^[1] The term is also sometimes used inaccurately to refer to legitimate polls which test political messages, some of which may be negative. Push polling has been condemned by the American Association of Political Consultants^[2], and is illegal in New Hampshire.^[